- Travel from Tucson to Duncan and back, through Safford each time.
- Very dry, but that is to be expected
- Traffic appeared to be down, way down
- Duncan and Safford were devoid of other drivers, people on the streets
- Upper Gila valley in cotton
- Monsoon is nearly here (good timing -- St. John the Baptist day was Tuesday)
- Travel to Casa Grande National Monument on 15th
- Not many were travelling on the interstate
- Coolidge seems empty
- Case Grande was in corn, of all things.
Saturday, June 28, 2008
Local Observations from June 2008
Friday, June 27, 2008
The Rains are Here
The summer rains have finally arrived here in southeastern Arizona. We call these rains the "monsoons", although some meteorological professionals object to that usage. We mostly ignore such people.
It was a classic build-up to the season. First, there was the hot and dry weather that dominates the end of May and most of June. High temperatures were in the 100 to 107 degree range, and in the city of Tucson, nighttime lows creeped up into the mid-seventies. The skies were blue upon blue with no clouds anywhere. Now most people would described these conditions as hellish, but the older I get the more I seem to enjoy that kind of weather. The one thing I don't like about the hot dry June weather is that it will kill any creature, plant or animal, that is unprepared or unprotected. I lost a tomato plant earlier in the month because I went too long between watering. But back to the description of the seasonal change.
During the hot and dry time, you will begin to notice the build up of some lightweight cumulus to the south of Tucson, over the Santa Rita mountains. This build up will dissipate by late afternoon, and it may depart for a few days and then return. I look favorably towards these clouds, even though there is no rain or shade from them. They are a sign that God remembers us here in the desert.
After about a week of this light cumulus pattern, you will begin to notice scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the San Pedro valley in Cochise county, near Benson. You may also notice that the light cumulus pattern starting to build over the Santa Catalina's. Now these clouds may offer some shade, but only if they wander away from the mountain.
When the rains do come, it comes as a slug of moisture up from Mexico. The day will start out as partly cloudy, but by 10 o'clock the clouds will begin to organize into cumulonimbus, initially over the mountains, but meandering into the valleys and basin by mid-afternoon. These storms always come with considerable cloud to ground lightening and can leave as much as one inch of rain in an hour.
The start of this years monsoon season corresponded with a book that I've finished, titled The Desert Smells Like Rain, by Gary Nahban. This book is about the agriculture and cuisine of the Tohono O'odama people in south-central Arizona. Nahban studied the culture of the Tohono O'odama for many years and has wonderful insights about their language and culture.
One huge problem the Tohono O'odama have is diabetes. The thought seems to be that the Tohono O'odama have adaptable to a diet not so high in carbohydrates and a diet that varies in quantity throughout the year. Now with a Western diet full of cheap carbs, the Papagos, as the Tohono O'odama are also known as, have become insulin insensitive, and follow that path to full blown diabetes.
Another item Nahban discusses is the farming of sheet runoff areas. That, combined with seeds that can come to maturity with only one or two such runoffs, means that the O'odama can conduct agriculture in a very arid regions.
It was a very enjoyable book and I recommend it to anyone.
It was a classic build-up to the season. First, there was the hot and dry weather that dominates the end of May and most of June. High temperatures were in the 100 to 107 degree range, and in the city of Tucson, nighttime lows creeped up into the mid-seventies. The skies were blue upon blue with no clouds anywhere. Now most people would described these conditions as hellish, but the older I get the more I seem to enjoy that kind of weather. The one thing I don't like about the hot dry June weather is that it will kill any creature, plant or animal, that is unprepared or unprotected. I lost a tomato plant earlier in the month because I went too long between watering. But back to the description of the seasonal change.
During the hot and dry time, you will begin to notice the build up of some lightweight cumulus to the south of Tucson, over the Santa Rita mountains. This build up will dissipate by late afternoon, and it may depart for a few days and then return. I look favorably towards these clouds, even though there is no rain or shade from them. They are a sign that God remembers us here in the desert.
After about a week of this light cumulus pattern, you will begin to notice scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the San Pedro valley in Cochise county, near Benson. You may also notice that the light cumulus pattern starting to build over the Santa Catalina's. Now these clouds may offer some shade, but only if they wander away from the mountain.
When the rains do come, it comes as a slug of moisture up from Mexico. The day will start out as partly cloudy, but by 10 o'clock the clouds will begin to organize into cumulonimbus, initially over the mountains, but meandering into the valleys and basin by mid-afternoon. These storms always come with considerable cloud to ground lightening and can leave as much as one inch of rain in an hour.
The start of this years monsoon season corresponded with a book that I've finished, titled The Desert Smells Like Rain, by Gary Nahban. This book is about the agriculture and cuisine of the Tohono O'odama people in south-central Arizona. Nahban studied the culture of the Tohono O'odama for many years and has wonderful insights about their language and culture.
One huge problem the Tohono O'odama have is diabetes. The thought seems to be that the Tohono O'odama have adaptable to a diet not so high in carbohydrates and a diet that varies in quantity throughout the year. Now with a Western diet full of cheap carbs, the Papagos, as the Tohono O'odama are also known as, have become insulin insensitive, and follow that path to full blown diabetes.
Another item Nahban discusses is the farming of sheet runoff areas. That, combined with seeds that can come to maturity with only one or two such runoffs, means that the O'odama can conduct agriculture in a very arid regions.
It was a very enjoyable book and I recommend it to anyone.
Fukuyama and the Last Man
The last post introduced Francis Fukuyama's The End of History and the Last Man, and discussed the meaning and basis for Fukuyama's claim for the "end of history". Fukuyama claims that 1) liberal democracies are apparently the most stable forms of government, and 2) the stability of liberal democracies means that nation-states will trend towards instituting this form of government, more so than any other. The second part of the book is an attempt to explain why this is so.
Fukuyama grounds his explanation in the psychologies of the people who make up the various nation states. Fukuyama divides people into two categories: those people who covet power and wish to possess and exercise power, and those people who do not. Although most people at some time in their lives may wish to have and exercise power, there are in all cultures people who are driven to do so, and do not merely wish it to be so. These people, whom Fukuyama described as megalomaniacs, are necessary to build ever more complex civilizations but also cause a great deal of misery in most cultures. These people, the ones who relentlessly pursue power, are Fukuyama's Last Man.
Some problems occur when more than one megalomaniac is vying for power. In most cultures, there is not a civil mechanism by which the various megalomaniacs can transfer power. The transfer of power occurs in these culture frequently through violence. Moreover, there is no way to remove a Last Man from power once he has it, except through violence.
The exception to this is liberal democracy. Such systems provide for the periodic transfer of power from one leader to the next, and provide the potential leaders with a forum for combat, that is elections, whereby these leaders can satisfy themselves with the pursuit of power without having to spill blood. Moreover, there are mechanisms for bloodlessly removing from power leaders that are unacceptably corrupt, incompetent, or vicious. Plus, there is the separation of power, which provides for more billets for those who wish to exercise power.
It is ability of a liberal democratic society to satisfy the power lust of certain individuals within those societies that according to Fukuyama explains the stability and longevity of liberal democracies.
I think that Fukuyama's thesis contains some explanatory power and that his insight into the durations of governments innovative. However, the hyperbolic title of his paper and book distracted people from a more level conversation on the merits of his arguments. Of course, if it weren't for his title, it is likely that I would have never read his book. But the title that attracted so may people to his book also caused his book to become the subject of ridicule for those who never read or poor understood his thesis, which is unfortunate.
Bill
Fukuyama grounds his explanation in the psychologies of the people who make up the various nation states. Fukuyama divides people into two categories: those people who covet power and wish to possess and exercise power, and those people who do not. Although most people at some time in their lives may wish to have and exercise power, there are in all cultures people who are driven to do so, and do not merely wish it to be so. These people, whom Fukuyama described as megalomaniacs, are necessary to build ever more complex civilizations but also cause a great deal of misery in most cultures. These people, the ones who relentlessly pursue power, are Fukuyama's Last Man.
Some problems occur when more than one megalomaniac is vying for power. In most cultures, there is not a civil mechanism by which the various megalomaniacs can transfer power. The transfer of power occurs in these culture frequently through violence. Moreover, there is no way to remove a Last Man from power once he has it, except through violence.
The exception to this is liberal democracy. Such systems provide for the periodic transfer of power from one leader to the next, and provide the potential leaders with a forum for combat, that is elections, whereby these leaders can satisfy themselves with the pursuit of power without having to spill blood. Moreover, there are mechanisms for bloodlessly removing from power leaders that are unacceptably corrupt, incompetent, or vicious. Plus, there is the separation of power, which provides for more billets for those who wish to exercise power.
It is ability of a liberal democratic society to satisfy the power lust of certain individuals within those societies that according to Fukuyama explains the stability and longevity of liberal democracies.
I think that Fukuyama's thesis contains some explanatory power and that his insight into the durations of governments innovative. However, the hyperbolic title of his paper and book distracted people from a more level conversation on the merits of his arguments. Of course, if it weren't for his title, it is likely that I would have never read his book. But the title that attracted so may people to his book also caused his book to become the subject of ridicule for those who never read or poor understood his thesis, which is unfortunate.
Bill
Friday, June 20, 2008
Fukuyama and the End of History
This week's post from The Archdruid Report concerned Francis Fukuyama's The End of History and the Last Man. This book came out in 1993 or so, shortly after the demise of the Soviet Union, when many of us who remember that time where scratching our heads and looking kind of dumb. We were looking kind of dumb because we were wondering what had just happened to the evil empire, the red menace, the greatest threat to world peace and prosperity at that time. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics simply could not have just evaporated, as it apparently did. But it did just evaporate, like a puddle of water on hot Arizona asphalt. Moreover, it seemed to be that what the Russians really wanted all this time was democracy. Fukuyama's book was an attempt, and a good one I believe, to provide a framework for what had happened, and what we might expect in the future.
Now most people simply have not read Fukuyama's book, and the title has become an a very tempting straw man for those in the mood to take out straw men. After all, history has not ended, so let's make fun of this yahoo who claims that it has.
Well of course, history has not ended, and someone of Fukuyama's skill and talent could obviously not think so. So what did he mean by the "end of history". The way I explain this is to ask the following: "what is the biggest headline event to have happened on the North American continent in the last 300 years or so?" Well, there are certainly a number of candidates: World War II, the Great Depression, Mexican Independence, the creation of Canada as an independent nation, the American Revolution, etc. We've been busy. But I think that Fukuyama might say that the biggest headline event in the last 300 years has been the American Civil War. The repercussions of that event resonate even today, nearly 150 years since they have transpired. He might also have said the American Revolution, which happened over 230 years ago. So to Fukuyama, the really big things to have happened on the North American continent happened long before the living memories of anyone's grandparent. Nor is there is any expectation that the American, Canadian, or even Mexican systems of political economy will change in the next decade or so, which would constitute one of his headline events. So although we North Americans have been busy creating new nations, compared to the rest of the world, we are slackers. History, in terms of these big nation creating headlines, has for all intensive purposes on this continent stopped.
Now, we still have wars, recessions, depressions, technological breakthroughs, civil and social upheavals and so on. But we don't have new states popping up. What gives? Fukuyama asked this same question, and asked an even broader question. He made a list of nation-states, their age, and their type of political economy, and saw what fell out. His analysis was brilliant to my mind, because the longest lived political economies in the world are liberal democracies, and the United States, my country, was among the longest lived, if not oldest nation-state in the world. The United Kingdom, another liberal democracy, was also near the top. In fact, all of the top candidates are liberal democracies. None other comes close.
What makes this outcome so strange is that many people think of the US as a very young nation. It is not. It is in fact old. We have a tradition of legal precedences, we have been traipsing to the poles every other year, we have elected forty plus presidents, and we have a number of other political customs and traditions that are over two hundred years old. That is a remarkable achievement. The English tradition of politics is perhaps older than the American--I equivocate because I'm not exactly sure how the English system works, and when it can be said to have started. There are other nations as well with an old system of liberal democracy, mostly starting in the Anglosphere.
So Fukuyama's thesis is that when a nation catches liberal democracy, it tends to stick with it, and with it goes the "end of history". There are counterexamples, of course, such as Weimar Germany giving way to Nazi Germany, but there is some strong evidence for his conclusion.
The second half of Fukuyama's book "and the Last Man" is Fukuyama's attempt to explain the apparent stability of the liberal democratic system, and this I will address in my next post.
Now most people simply have not read Fukuyama's book, and the title has become an a very tempting straw man for those in the mood to take out straw men. After all, history has not ended, so let's make fun of this yahoo who claims that it has.
Well of course, history has not ended, and someone of Fukuyama's skill and talent could obviously not think so. So what did he mean by the "end of history". The way I explain this is to ask the following: "what is the biggest headline event to have happened on the North American continent in the last 300 years or so?" Well, there are certainly a number of candidates: World War II, the Great Depression, Mexican Independence, the creation of Canada as an independent nation, the American Revolution, etc. We've been busy. But I think that Fukuyama might say that the biggest headline event in the last 300 years has been the American Civil War. The repercussions of that event resonate even today, nearly 150 years since they have transpired. He might also have said the American Revolution, which happened over 230 years ago. So to Fukuyama, the really big things to have happened on the North American continent happened long before the living memories of anyone's grandparent. Nor is there is any expectation that the American, Canadian, or even Mexican systems of political economy will change in the next decade or so, which would constitute one of his headline events. So although we North Americans have been busy creating new nations, compared to the rest of the world, we are slackers. History, in terms of these big nation creating headlines, has for all intensive purposes on this continent stopped.
Now, we still have wars, recessions, depressions, technological breakthroughs, civil and social upheavals and so on. But we don't have new states popping up. What gives? Fukuyama asked this same question, and asked an even broader question. He made a list of nation-states, their age, and their type of political economy, and saw what fell out. His analysis was brilliant to my mind, because the longest lived political economies in the world are liberal democracies, and the United States, my country, was among the longest lived, if not oldest nation-state in the world. The United Kingdom, another liberal democracy, was also near the top. In fact, all of the top candidates are liberal democracies. None other comes close.
What makes this outcome so strange is that many people think of the US as a very young nation. It is not. It is in fact old. We have a tradition of legal precedences, we have been traipsing to the poles every other year, we have elected forty plus presidents, and we have a number of other political customs and traditions that are over two hundred years old. That is a remarkable achievement. The English tradition of politics is perhaps older than the American--I equivocate because I'm not exactly sure how the English system works, and when it can be said to have started. There are other nations as well with an old system of liberal democracy, mostly starting in the Anglosphere.
So Fukuyama's thesis is that when a nation catches liberal democracy, it tends to stick with it, and with it goes the "end of history". There are counterexamples, of course, such as Weimar Germany giving way to Nazi Germany, but there is some strong evidence for his conclusion.
The second half of Fukuyama's book "and the Last Man" is Fukuyama's attempt to explain the apparent stability of the liberal democratic system, and this I will address in my next post.
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